As a Democratic site, we've been pretty intensely focused upon the Democrats primary race, on who polls where and who raised how much from how many. We've kind of been ignoring the Republican race. Well, something magical has been happening. Mitt Romney has been pulling ahead in the race. Hallelujah.
Despite the fact that he is a contemptible little troll, Giuliani remains strangely popular with the electorate and polls relativley strongly in important states like Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and (most distressingly) New York. New comer Thompson has the same kind of Souther Fried charm that the electorate loves so well. They are our biggest dangers in a general election.
But Romney is a different story. He has an unpopular religion and comes from an "evil" state. He's a bigger flip flopper than Shamu and can't talk about a record much better then how freaking awesome those 2002 Olympics were. In overall head to heads (not state by state, but still useful markers) Our candidates lead him by 12 points (clinton) 16 (Obama) and over 20 (Edwards). We're kicking his ass.
Romney has a commanding lead in New Hampshire (7 points on average) and Iowa (8.3). In the last two polls he's lead in Nevada. He has Utah in the bag and a shot at Mass. The only Kansas poll I have (from May) shows him leading there. While Giuliani leads in most of the major states his gap is smaller then Clinton's lead over the Dems. South Carolina will go to Thompson and Michigan is anyone's game. Thompson and McCain could take several Southern and Western States away from him. McCain obviously has Arizona. He was in the lead in Arkansas and West Virgina in the last polls a few months ago. A May poll in Texas gave McCain a 4 point lead.
With Giuliani weakening and the votes increasingly split, Romney could gain significant momentum from the 2 or 3 early wins heading into the big state primaries. It's months and months away from game time, anything could change. But if it doesn't, if Romney pulls it off, the Republicans will be handing us a huge gift.
Links for the various polls,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
http://electoral-vote.com/